The stakes are high for Tuesday’s debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as both candidates aim to sway undecided voters and solidify their bases. Nearly a month ago, five key indicators beyond the Harris-Trump race were highlighted, providing insights into the election’s trajectory. Revisiting these indicators, with fresh polling, shows Harris’ momentum has slowed but remains positive. Her popularity continues to rise, and Democratic voters are more energized than when Joe Biden was the frontrunner. Despite this, the race is still neck-and-neck.
Trump had a 2-point lead in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, but Harris holds a 1-3 point national lead on average. Republicans’ advantage in the Electoral College makes the race comparable to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 popular vote victory rather than Biden’s 2020 win. The battleground states remain extremely close, with both candidates’ leads within 3 points. Harris’ biggest lead is in Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Arizona.
Harris’ favorable rating has increased from 39% in June to 48% now. While her popularity has plateaued, she remains more favorable than Trump, who averages 44%. Polls indicate a small advantage for Harris, though Tuesday’s debate could shift her numbers, as 71% of voters say they know enough about her compared to 90% for Trump.
Third-party voting has dropped significantly since earlier this year, especially with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. no longer a major factor. Libertarian and Green Party candidates are receiving minimal support, leaving the race primarily between Harris and Trump.
Voter enthusiasm is high on both sides. Democrats have caught up with Republicans in enthusiasm, with 72% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans reporting they are very eager to vote. Both candidates have similar enthusiasm from their supporters, with 63% of Harris and Trump voters feeling highly motivated.
Trump continues to lead on the economy, a key issue for voters. Polls show Trump with a consistent advantage over Harris in handling economic concerns. However, Harris’ campaign is focusing on narrowing that gap, especially since the economy is expected to be a crucial factor on Election Day.
The public’s outlook on the country’s direction has slightly improved, with 27% now believing the country is on the right track. Harris has been trying to present herself as a candidate for change, despite being part of the current administration. Her post-debate campaign tour, titled “New Way Forward,” emphasizes this theme.
With both candidates locked in a close race, Tuesday’s debate could play a pivotal role in shaping the final weeks of the election campaign.