As COVID-19 activity remains elevated in the U.S., a new variant called XEC is rapidly spreading across Europe and other parts of the world. While only a few cases have been reported in the U.S., experts project that XEC could become the dominant strain by this fall.
What Is the XEC Variant?
XEC is a recombinant variant, meaning it is a hybrid of two previous strains, KP.3.3 (a FLiRT variant) and KS.1.1. According to Dr. Albert Ko, an infectious disease physician at Yale School of Public Health, recombinant variants emerge when a person is infected with two different strains, leading to a mix of their genetic material.
XEC, like other variants, is a sublineage of Omicron. Other recently circulating variants include the FLiRT strains and the current dominant strain in the U.S., KP.3.1.1, also known as “DeFLuQE.”
The XEC variant first appeared in Berlin in late June, according to Australian data scientist Mike Honey, and has since spread rapidly across Europe, North America, and Asia.
Is XEC More Contagious?
Experts believe that XEC is highly contagious, similar to other Omicron variants. “It appears to be quite contagious and easily spread,” says Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
XEC’s rapid rise in Europe has sparked attention, with the variant showing strong growth in countries like Germany and Denmark. While cases in the U.S. remain low, the variant is expected to increase in prevalence, possibly surpassing current dominant strains.
Will XEC Drive a Fall Surge?
As respiratory virus season approaches, there is concern over whether XEC could contribute to a fall surge in COVID-19 cases. “The summer wave has been more prolonged than anticipated, but it’s only now starting to wane,” says Schaffner.
While predicting the severity and timing of future surges is challenging, experts suggest that immunity from the summer wave may help reduce the impact of a potential winter surge. However, whether XEC or another variant will be responsible for driving any future spikes remains uncertain.
What Can We Expect From XEC?
Though XEC is spreading rapidly and appears highly contagious, no alarming signs have emerged so far. “It looks to be behaving like other Omicron subvariants,” says Schaffner. While the variant has mutations in its spike protein, it is still unclear whether XEC will outcompete other variants or cause a major surge in the U.S.