Everton vs Newcastle
Everton finally secured their first league win of the season last weekend, defeating Crystal Palace. While this puts the Toffees level on points compared to their first six games last season, which helped them avoid a relegation fight, the question remains—should fans be worried?
Last season, newly-promoted teams struggled to keep pace with Premier League competition. This time around, Ipswich Town and to a lesser extent, Leicester City, seem capable of mounting a serious effort to avoid the drop. Everton must remain vigilant and cannot afford complacency.
Despite securing all three points last weekend, the performance was not entirely convincing. A better opponent than Crystal Palace could have punished Everton’s lackluster first-half display. While the squad has improved in quality compared to the one that earned 48 points last season, there are still questions over whether Sean Dyche can extract the best out of his players.
Newcastle United’s Form
Last season was turbulent for Newcastle United, plagued by key injuries and off-field issues. Big-money midfield signing Sandro Tonali received a ban for historical gambling offenses, limiting him to less than 700 minutes across all competitions. Harvey Barnes, another major acquisition, missed over four months due to injury, managing only seven starts all season. Their depth was exposed by injuries and a Champions League campaign, and they failed to capitalize on the momentum from their surprising fourth-place finish in the previous term.
Newcastle’s seventh-place finish last season was not enough to secure European football, thanks to Manchester United’s FA Cup victory. The club, despite being one of the richest in the world on paper, had to tighten the purse strings this summer, selling players like Yankuba Minteh and Elliot Anderson to comply with PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules).
In terms of recruitment, the Magpies were relatively restrained, with their biggest signing being Lewis Hall from Chelsea for €33m. They also added Bournemouth’s Lloyd Kelly and Nottingham Forest’s goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos to the squad, but overall, the summer window was quiet compared to previous seasons.
Newcastle’s Style of Play
Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle’s 4-3-3 formation is set in stone, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any significant tactical changes tonight. However, their high-intensity style of play from last season has given way to a more counter-attacking approach this term. Newcastle’s possession has dropped from 52.2% last season to 44.6% this year.
The Magpies rank 15th in the league for pass completion (81.6%) and 16th in shots generated per 90 minutes (11.2). Despite these middling statistics, Newcastle has matched their expected goals (xG) of 8.3, scoring eight goals so far. They aren’t particularly direct, with only 10.9% of their passes classified as long, but they heavily favor attacks down the left side, where Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes typically operate.
Defensive Concerns
Defensively, Newcastle has been more vulnerable than expected. They allow opponents 17.5 shots per 90 minutes, ranking 17th in the league. They’re not particularly prone to counterattacks or set-piece goals but have outperformed their xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) of 9.6, conceding only seven goals so far.
Key Player Assessment
Former Everton player Anthony Gordon is likely to lead Newcastle’s line tonight, with star striker Alexander Isak sidelined through injury. While Gordon is more effective on the left wing, his flexibility will be crucial in Isak’s absence. Gordon has struggled to replicate his strong form from last season, managing just one goal from the penalty spot in Newcastle’s last league game. However, he leads the team in key passes, completed crosses into the penalty area, and shot-creating actions.
Harvey Barnes, who will likely start on the left wing, is Newcastle’s leading goal scorer with three goals. His direct style, pace, and dribbling ability make him a dangerous threat for Everton’s defense. Barnes also leads the Magpies in progressive carries and takes more shots than any other Newcastle player.
Everton’s Tactical Approach and Predicted Lineup
Newcastle’s results have been stronger than their performances this season, while Everton’s outings have arguably deserved more points than their current standing reflects. However, Sean Dyche’s side has yet to put in a consistently strong 90-minute performance, and that’s something the manager needs to address.
Injuries will play a major role in tonight’s game. Newcastle will miss both Isak and Sven Botman, while Everton is likely to be without Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitalii Mykolenko. Nathan Patterson is also out, having played 90 minutes for the under-21s the previous night. As a result, Ashley Young will move to left-back, with James Garner filling in on the right—a tough assignment considering he’ll be up against the pacey and dangerous Barnes.
Michael Keane is expected to partner James Tarkowski in central defense, despite fan frustration over Keane’s performances this season. Summer signing Jake O’Brien remains on the fringes, as Dyche appears reluctant to give him more opportunities in the first team.
Prediction: A Cautious Draw
Everton is likely to adopt a more passive approach, similar to what we saw in their games against Southampton and Crystal Palace. With Newcastle’s pace and Everton’s defensive vulnerabilities, this could be a cagey encounter. Dominic Calvert-Lewin will face a physical battle against Newcastle’s towering defender Dan Burn, while Everton’s midfield could be outnumbered if Newcastle dominates possession.
In a tight and cautious affair, I predict a 1-1 draw, with both teams having their moments but ultimately cancelling each other out.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Newcastle United