The already intense 2024 presidential race in the crucial swing state of North Carolina took a sharp turn on Thursday after a CNN investigation revealed a scandal involving Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate. The report exposed shocking comments Robinson allegedly made over a decade ago on a pornography website’s message board, where he referred to himself as a “Black Nazi!” and expressed support for reinstating slavery, among other lewd remarks.
Though Robinson, now the state’s lieutenant governor, denied making the comments, the political damage is already evident. His close ties to Donald Trump—who once called him “Martin Luther King on steroids” and featured him at a recent rally—have cast a shadow over the former president’s re-election bid. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign quickly seized on the scandal, using it to reinforce their portrayal of Trump as extreme, immoral, and unfit for office. In a pointed move, Harris’ team circulated photos of Trump and Robinson together on social media, along with Trump’s signature thumbs-up.
Will Robinson’s Scandal Affect Trump’s Chances?
The real question is whether Robinson’s implosion will hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina, a key battleground state. Trump’s voters are fiercely loyal, and it’s not guaranteed that dissatisfaction with Robinson will translate to a loss for the former president. North Carolina has remained stubbornly red in recent elections, despite Democratic hopes of flipping it. However, any dip in Republican turnout could prove pivotal in a race that is currently neck-and-neck. If Trump’s campaign falters in North Carolina, it could give Harris a vital fallback if she struggles in more traditionally Democratic states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
In a broader sense, the Robinson scandal illustrates the state of the Republican Party in the Trump era, as well as the high stakes of the 2024 election. Robinson is the latest in a series of controversial candidates whose rise to prominence was fueled by their loyalty to Trump. Like others before him, Robinson’s behavior and rhetoric—particularly toward women and the LGBTQ+ community—were well known to voters, but didn’t prevent him from being elected lieutenant governor.
The Fallout in North Carolina’s Race
Before the scandal broke, Robinson was already trailing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein by a wide margin. Now, Robinson’s troubles have pushed North Carolina even further into the spotlight in the presidential race. David Plouffe, a senior advisor to Harris, underlined the state’s importance by pointing out its “16 key electoral votes” on social media.
This comes as Democrats continue their efforts to win North Carolina, which they haven’t carried since Barack Obama’s 2008 victory. With the current Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, leaving office, and Stein performing well in the polls, Democrats may feel they have their best chance in years to turn the state blue.
Trump’s past support for Robinson, who has also made inflammatory comments about civil rights and school shootings, could become a liability. While Trump has tried to make inroads with Black male voters in North Carolina, his association with Robinson could undercut those efforts.
A Turbulent Race for the White House
The Robinson scandal is only the latest in a series of controversies that have rocked the Trump campaign. In the past week alone, Trump has faced backlash for promoting a conspiracy theory that Haitian immigrants in Ohio are eating residents’ pets. At a recent rally, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders took a jab at Kamala Harris for not having biological children, further alienating key women voters.
Meanwhile, Harris has been running a traditional, focused campaign, reaching out to Hispanic, Black, women, and Asian American voters. On Thursday night, she joined Oprah Winfrey for a “Unite For America” event aimed at locking in support among White and Black women, in hopes of counteracting Trump’s strength among White male voters.
Can Trump Contain the Damage?
The Trump campaign responded to the Robinson scandal with a clear desire to distance itself from the controversy. Campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt insisted that Trump remains focused on winning North Carolina, stating, “We are confident that as voters compare the Trump record of a strong economy, low inflation, a secure border, and safe streets, with the failures of Biden-Harris, then President Trump will win the Tarheel State once again.”
Despite this, political analysts are skeptical about whether Trump can completely escape the fallout. Margaret Hoover, a conservative commentator, noted that Trump’s base is loyal and unlikely to turn on him over Robinson’s scandal. “MAGA supporters are MAGA supporters regardless of who the Republican nominee is for governor,” Hoover told CNN.
Still, the timing of the scandal is critical. Under North Carolina law, Thursday was the last day a candidate could withdraw their name from the ballot before absentee voting begins. While some Republicans expressed concerns about Robinson’s past comments, there was no effort from the Trump campaign to pressure him to drop out.
A Golden Opportunity for Harris?
The Harris campaign, on the other hand, is doing everything it can to keep the Robinson scandal in the headlines. Governor Roy Cooper condemned both Trump and Robinson, saying in a social media post, “Donald Trump and NC GOP leaders embraced Mark Robinson for years knowing who he was and what he stood for, including disrespect for women and inciting violence. They reap what they sow.”
Though it remains unclear how much the scandal will impact the presidential race, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Harris. North Carolina has been one of the most closely contested states in recent years. In 2012, Obama lost to Mitt Romney by just 2 points. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by nearly 4 points, but Biden narrowed that margin to just over 1 point in 2020.
Political forecaster Nate Silver pointed out that even a small shift in voter sentiment could be decisive. “In a state like North Carolina, if you have someone like Mark Robinson who moves the polls by half a point, all of a sudden that state becomes more interesting,” Silver said.
While it’s rare for a down-ballot race to affect the presidential contest, aggressive Democratic ads tying Trump to Robinson could depress Republican turnout, potentially flipping North Carolina. If that happens, it could open a new path to victory for Harris, especially if she struggles in more traditional Democratic strongholds.
If Trump wins North Carolina for the third time, it would further solidify his hold on the Republican base despite the chaos surrounding his campaign. But if the state flips blue, it could mark the beginning of the end for Trump-era politics.