In NFL Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings dominated the Houston Texans in a 34-7 blowout, making it easy to ease off the passing game and suppressing Sam Darnold’s stats in the process. Meanwhile, the matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions saw a defensive grind, easily cashing in on the under bet, as both teams kept scoring to a minimum. On the other hand, the Washington Commanders are riding high behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, but their current offensive surge seems unsustainable, especially with defensive lapses and a tough road matchup against the Arizona Cardinals looming. As NFL scoring trends dip, finding value in unders and fading teams like Washington is key this week.
Scoring across the NFL has been on the decline, and it seems the oddsmakers haven’t fully adjusted yet. This season, overs are hitting just 40% of the time, with the average game falling short of the expected total by nearly three points. A similar trend occurred two years ago when overs cashed only 38% through the first three weeks, eventually rising to 46% from Weeks 4 through 18. Keep that in mind when considering totals going forward.
Our picks are made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning, with any odds updates highlighted in bold, but the picks are locked in at their original numbers.
Washington’s offense, led by impressive rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, has gone two straight games without a turnover or punt, outperforming expectations by 14 points per game based on down, distance, and field position, according to TruMedia. However, this pace doesn’t seem sustainable. On the defensive side, the Commanders are giving up almost 18 points per game more than expected, which aligns more closely with preseason projections.
Additionally, the Commanders have been benefiting from a lot of luck this season, including dropped interceptions, missed passes, opponent field goals, and favorable fumble recoveries. Considering they’re up against a strong Arizona team, ranked 11th in Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average (while Washington ranks 26th), and facing a second straight road game on a short week, I’m fading the Commanders here. The line is 3½, but I’m exploring an alternate spread of Cardinals -6½ if I can find odds of +130 or better.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4½)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ABC
Pick: Lions team total under 25½ points (Game pick: Seahawks +4½, but not a best bet)
Detroit is dealing with significant injuries. Tight end Sam LaPorta (ankle) and defensive tackle Alim McNeill (shoulder) are day-to-day, while pass rusher Marcus Davenport (elbow) and linebacker Derrick Barnes (knee) are out, and defensive back Brian Branch is in concussion protocol. These defensive setbacks could allow Seattle to sustain longer drives, keeping Detroit’s offense off the field. Notably, the Lions have scored no more than 20 points in regulation through their first three games.
Seattle’s defense has also been strong this season, allowing just 18.8 yards per drive. Opponents are scoring 16 points per game fewer than expected, marking the best defensive performance through three weeks.
Below are our picks for the remaining games, based on analysis and point spreads:
Dallas Cowboys (-4½) at New York Giants
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video
Pick: Giants +4½
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Falcons -1½
Cincinnati Bengals (-5½) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Panthers +5½
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-1½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Bears -1½
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Packers -2½
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-4½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Texans -4½
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1½) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Steelers -1½
Philadelphia Eagles (-2½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Eagles -2½
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Jets -7½
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10½)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | Fox
Pick: 49ers -10½
Cleveland Browns (-1½) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Browns -1½
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Chiefs -8
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-1½)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: Bills +1½
Tennessee Titans (-1½) at Miami Dolphins
Monday, 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
Pick: Dolphins +1½
As always, betting on every game can be a fool’s errand, and it’s important to focus on the games where the odds truly offer value. Keep these insights in mind when evaluating the week’s matchups.