Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in five of seven key swing states that will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted by AtlasIntel, shows Trump ahead in Michigan (50.6% to 47.2%) and Pennsylvania (51% to 48.1%). The former president also holds narrow leads in the toss-up states of Arizona (49.8% to 48.6%), Georgia (49.6% to 49%), and Wisconsin (49.7% to 48.2%). Meanwhile, Harris leads in North Carolina (50.5% to 48.1%) and Nevada (50.5% to 47.7%).
AtlasIntel, which was ranked as the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election by FiveThirtyEight, suggests Trump would win the 2024 race with 290 Electoral College votes if he secures all five battleground states where he currently leads, leaving Harris with 248.
The AtlasIntel polls, conducted between September 20-25 with a margin of error between 2-3 percentage points, indicate that Trump could win two of the critical “blue wall” states, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which are essential for Harris.
For Harris, winning the three blue wall states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—would secure her the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win, assuming no unexpected results elsewhere. On the other hand, if Trump wins just Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, he would have enough votes to clinch the presidency.
Trump could also win by taking the four Sun Belt swing states—Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada—and flipping just one of Wisconsin or Michigan.
In North Carolina, where Harris currently leads, the poll was conducted in the wake of controversy surrounding Mark Robinson, a Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate. Robinson has faced backlash after allegedly describing himself as a “Black Nazi” on a message board more than a decade ago, along with other controversies.
David B. McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith University, told Newsweek that Trump may be “somewhat inoculated” from Robinson’s controversies due to North Carolina’s history of ticket-splitting. However, in a tight race, even a small dip in support for Trump could make a difference.
The AtlasIntel swing state surveys polled 946 likely voters in Arizona, 1,200 in Georgia, 918 in Michigan, 1,173 in North Carolina, 1,775 in Pennsylvania, and 1,077 in Wisconsin, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, except Pennsylvania, which had a margin of 2 percentage points.