Getty Images
Get expert analysis, updated odds, and top picks for the Yankees vs Orioles matchup on Tuesday. Discover key insights, betting predictions, and what to expect in this critical MLB showdown.
The Baltimore Orioles are stumbling into the postseason, having lost 10 of their last 14 games and dropping five consecutive series after falling to the Detroit Tigers over the weekend. If not for their four-game lead in the AL wild card race, their playoff hopes would be in serious jeopardy.
Baltimore’s regular season will conclude on the road, beginning with a three-game series against the New York Yankees on Tuesday night. Dean Kremer will start for the Orioles, while Clarke Schmidt takes the mound for New York. While Baltimore has won Kremer’s last three starts against the Yankees, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde is unlikely to give him a long leash if he struggles.
Orioles vs. Yankees odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | +136 | +1.5 (-155) | o8.5 (-108) |
| Yankees | -162 | -1.5 (+130) | u8.5 (-112) |
Orioles’ Struggles: ‘Just Trying to Get There’
The Orioles’ recent skid has been alarming. Despite holding a 6-4 season series lead over New York, Baltimore looks far from the team they were when the two clubs last met in mid-July.
Kremer’s previous start against the Yankees on July 14 ended early, as he lasted just 4 ⅔ innings, giving up two earned runs on four hits and two walks. It marked the second time in his last three starts against New York that he failed to pitch past the fifth inning.
While the Orioles’ four-game wild card lead makes their postseason berth likely, they’ll need to find some wins on the road to secure their spot. With their poor form down the stretch, there’s a sense that Hyde may manage conservatively, especially if Baltimore takes an early lead.
Yankees’ Outlook: Schmidt in Favorable Spot
The Yankees have already clinched a playoff spot but are still in contention for home-field advantage in the American League. With 12 wins in their last 16 games, they’re not likely to take this series lightly.
Getty Images
Clarke Schmidt, who has pitched at least five innings in each of his last three outings against the Orioles, has limited Baltimore to three or fewer runs in those appearances. Schmidt’s pitch mix is well-suited to facing the Orioles, who have struggled against his key offerings. His sinker, thrown 21.3% of the time, has been a particular problem for the Orioles, who have scored 17 runs below average against that pitch.
The Orioles are also below average against the slider and knuckle-curve—pitches that Schmidt throws nearly 40% of the time. Additionally, Schmidt’s first-pitch strike rate of 63.1% should give him an early advantage in counts, making him more difficult to handle.
Orioles vs. Yankees Pick
Kremer’s recent form is a concern, particularly against the Yankees’ lineup. His pitch arsenal does not point to success against New York, as none of his offerings show a below-average run value for the Yankees’ hitters.
Further, if we assess Kremer’s performance using the Stuff+ metric, which evaluates the quality and deception of his pitches, his score of 87 is the lowest of his five-year career, adding to the uncertainty of his effectiveness in this crucial game.